Alvin Toffler: A Foreigner Who Visited the Juku

News of the death of American futurist Alvin Toffler swept across the globe. He reportedly passed away at his home in Los Angeles on June 27, 2016, at the age of 87.

There was a young woman working in Singapore who was troubled when asked, "Why is Japan's economic growth rate so low?" For the past 20 to 30 years, Japan's economic growth has been stagnant compared to other countries. Everyone, not just the Japanese, wants to know the cause, but Alvin Toffler had already issued a warning.

Modern society has passed through the former agricultural society and the subsequent industrial society, and is now a post-industrial society. It is an information society where knowledge is the undercurrent, and unlike the era of mass production, it is a diversified society. However, although Japan's reality is evolving, it is said to be falling behind the times because it remains bound by the politics, philosophy, and systems of the old Japanese-style industrial society.

Going back in time, Keio University conferred an honorary doctorate on Dr. Toffler in 1990. Toffler emerged as a journalist and, through active writing, had already been awarded honorary doctorates from several leading American universities. He published "Future Shock" in 1970, "The Third Wave" in 1980, "Powershift" in 1990, and "Revolutionary Wealth" in 2006. All of these became massive bestsellers and generated a significant response. He was particularly interested in Japanese society and culture, and he expressed valuable opinions on trade friction issues between Japan and the U.S., as well as on Japanese politics, economy, and culture.

Dr. Toffler was invited to the degree conferral ceremony on November 30, 1990, and at the same time, a commemorative lecture titled "Japan in the Powershift Era" was held on a grand scale in Room 518 of the West School Building. Upon the publication of the Japanese translation of "Powershift," he spoke extensively about its contents. The full translation was published in the March 1991 issue of Mita-hyoron (official monthly journal published by Keio University Press). At the time, as the Dean of the Faculty of Business and Commerce, I was in the position of welcoming Mr. and Mrs. Toffler.

Toffler reportedly visited Japan more than 50 times. He said that when he came, he often went to Akihabara. He made numerous recommendations regarding Japan, and according to his final major work, "Revolutionary Wealth," he pointed out the following.

In Japan, resistance to the "Third Wave" (the information and communication society) remains strong. While globalization proceeds easily in economy and technology, regulations and systems tend to lag behind. In particular, managers of large corporations from the past, long-serving bureaucrats, and teachers who use the same teaching materials are areas of concern.

In Japan, the "lifetime employment system" and "keiretsu" are still alive and well. These are relics of the mass production era and prevent small businesses from developing intangible products. Furthermore, venture companies do not grow. Even if there is a shortage of venture capital, banks do not lend money. As a result, there are few startups in the telecommunications industry. Although the acquisition of information technology patents in Japan is increasing rapidly, it is being hindered by small, sector-specific regulations that resemble the smokestacks of the industrial society era.

Overall, decision-making in Japan is slow. Also, the division of labor between men and women is not easily improved. Furthermore, the response to the wave of aging is lagging. First of all, it is strange to regard the elderly as unproductive. According to Toffler's "prosumer" theory, volunteers are also fine producers and form a part of the working population. Furthermore, a foreign workforce will be essential to meet the demand for elderly care.

The Tofflers quote from The Economist: "Are there any industries in Japan other than manufacturing that are excellent? High domestic transportation costs hinder the development of logistics, travel, and tourism. The energy and telecommunications industries have high business costs because there is no competition. Professional services such as law and accounting are still rigid. Medical care facing an aging population has extremely low productivity from an international perspective." In other words, outside of manufacturing, the engine of economic operation is not rotating sufficiently due to protectionist policies in line with national policy. ("Revolutionary Wealth," p. 236)

Alvin Toffler was born in New York in 1928 and graduated from New York University in 1949. His wife, Heidi, was a comrade he met at the university. The two did not go to graduate school; they married and moved to the American Midwest. Then, the two remarkably began working in factories. Heidi became a worker in an aluminum foundry, and Alvin experienced blue-collar work, starting as a welder. They worked in the midst of mass production in factories and also experienced unemployment. This experience is cited in their subsequent writings and plays a major role in helping readers understand. Meanwhile, Heidi was active as a labor union official, and Alvin also wrote for union newspapers. Five years later, they moved to Washington, where he engaged in writing and lecturing for Fortune magazine and others. His background is that of a journalist.

Toffler subsequently published books one after another, but since he did not hold a position at a university, he was not bound by any academic field and was called a futurist by some. On the other hand, from the perspective of traditionalists who believe that the future of the flow of history cannot be predicted, futurology itself seems to be rejected.

What solidified Toffler's name as a futurist was "The Third Wave," published in 1980. It attracted attention for predicting the information society 20 years before the emergence of the Internet. Toffler's four major works are as follows. The Japanese translations were published in the same year as the original works.

There are likely few individuals who have published such major works throughout their lives with a consistent outlook, which were then translated into various languages and widely read. However, to be precise, these are not the achievements of Alvin Toffler alone. He emphasized this himself, and his final work, "Revolutionary Wealth," was co-authored with his wife, Heidi.

Heidi and Alvin married in 1950 after graduating from university. The experience of becoming blue-collar factory workers was likely a choice made by both of them. Even after Alvin pursued a career as a journalist, Heidi was likely a good advisor. Alvin wrote that he received Heidi's cooperation in his subsequent writing activities, but did not list her as a co-author because she adamantly refused. Heidi is listed as Alvin's co-author only for two other books and their later work, "Revolutionary Wealth."

I only knew the couple for a single day when they visited the Juku in 1990, but I remember Alvin stating in his lecture that "Powershift" was a collaborative effort with Heidi, and he always publicly said "we" instead of "I." Also, seeing how his wife was always gently protected made me feel envious.

Whether a work is a single authorship or a co-authorship clearly divides the glory and responsibility, but in Toffler's case, what was the actual relationship? This is only speculation, but having lived and debated together since their student days, they were perhaps like two bodies with one soul. I imagine that Alvin's ideas and their systematization were constantly refined and nurtured through friendly rivalry with Heidi. Not to mention the fact that their relationship as a couple lasted for a long period of 66 years, their communal relationship is immeasurable.

Furthermore, I must mention their only daughter, Karen, who supported Toffler. She also seems to have been a powerful assistant in finishing Toffler's works, but she fought a difficult illness for 10 years and passed away in 2000 at the young age of 46. How great must have been the grief of the couple? Toffler stated that "Revolutionary Wealth," published in 2006, was significantly delayed because of that.

In 1996, the Tofflers launched a business consulting firm called Toffler Associates, which served as a base for communicating their ideas and strategies to the world. In 2010, they announced future predictions through the year 2050. They made 40 predictions divided into politics, technology, society, economy, and environment.

For example, there are many interesting points, such as the importance of global religious trends and the strengthening role of corporations as "connectors." The news of Alvin's passing was announced from here.

What is important for the coming era. In the industrial society of the Second Wave, the economy was central. Culture, religion, and art were secondary. In the world of the Third Wave information society, where knowledge is central, technology and economy will be relegated to the status of being parts of a system. Values and ethics will take center stage and face the increasing wealth. Individuals, corporations, organizations, and governments are all facing rapid changes toward the future.