[Special Feature: Thinking about the Logistics Crisis] Tomoyuki Furutani: Current Status and Future Outlook of Drone Logistics

The challenge facing Japan's logistics industry is, above all, a shortage of drivers. While attention tends to focus on the increase in small-parcel deliveries, it is no exaggeration to say that the working environment for long-distance drivers is poor. Consequently, it has become difficult for logistics companies to employ an adequate number of drivers. Naturally, the background to this includes an absolute decrease in the number of people becoming drivers due to population decline and a shrinking birthrate and aging population, as well as an increase in the number of delivery items handled.

The spread of e-commerce (EC) has increased the number of items handled, and the increase in redeliveries due to absence at the time of delivery is one factor causing inefficient logistics. As a result, despite the shift toward low-environmental-impact delivery vehicles, the absolute increase in logistics volume is creating an increased environmental burden.

From April 2024, a 960-hour upper limit on overtime work for truck drivers and revised standard notifications will be applied. It has been pointed out that as driver working hours are shortened, transport capacity will drop sharply, leading to the so-called "2024 Problem" where goods can no longer be transported.

Under these circumstances, high expectations are being placed on the unmanned, labor-saving, and autonomous nature of logistics. The day when drones, robots, automated vehicles, and autonomous ships play a part in logistics will likely arrive in the not-so-distant future.

In this article, I will briefly summarize the current status and future outlook of logistics utilizing robotics technology, focusing on so-called drones. First, I will show the elemental technologies used in logistics, and then organize the current status of drone utilization in Japan. Based on that, I will present the challenges for social implementation at this point and state the future outlook.

Generally, many people likely imagine UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) when they think of drones. I view drones as "multi-functional autonomous systems equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) and sensors that are not limited to specific domains." Therefore, in this article, I will show examples of utilization targeting Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV), Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), and Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV) used for logistics purposes. Among these, in addition to those that were previously operated by humans and have been made unmanned, those that have been made autonomous or automated using AI and robotics technology are being utilized. While some are powered by fossil fuels, in recent years they are often electrified, so expectations for low environmental impact are also high.

2-1. Aerial Drone Logistics

As a relatively early-stage initiative in aerial drone logistics, there is Rakuten's drone service "Sora Raku." Since 2016, they have started a service that enables shopping at golf courses using the "Tenku" multicopter drone, which is capable of fully autonomous flight, and a dedicated online shopping app.

Demonstration experiments for drone logistics using UAVs are being deployed in various locations. Examples assuming the delivery of daily necessities in depopulated areas or remote islands include cases conducted by ANA Holdings Inc. in Fukuoka City, Fukuoka Prefecture, and Goto City, Nagasaki Prefecture, and cases conducted by Aeronext Inc. in Kosuge Village, Yamanashi Prefecture. A regional issue serving as the background for these demonstration experiments is the potential emergence of "shopping refugees" in the future.

As a demonstration experiment assuming demand for pharmaceutical delivery, a case conducted by Toyota Tsusho Corporation in Goto City, Nagasaki Prefecture, using fixed-wing aircraft from the US company Zipline is well known. Additionally, as a demonstration experiment assuming the transport of agricultural products, there is a case conducted in Odawara City, Kanagawa Prefecture, by the Keio Research Institute at SFC Consortium for Co-Creation of Drone Collaborative Society, for which I serve as representative.

In December 2022, a new system was established regarding so-called "Level 4" long-distance beyond-visual-line-of-sight flight without assistants in urban areas. Therefore, it is expected that the commercialization and social implementation of logistics using UAVs will progress in the future. At present, because the number of operators with Level 4 national qualifications is limited, many assistants are required even when conducting social experiments. The costs for this (mostly labor costs) are putting pressure on the entire business, so the reality is that there is also the issue of whether operators can continue their business until UAV drone logistics becomes widespread.

Overseas, drone logistics utilizing air mobility is entering the stage of practical use, primarily in the United States. Triggered by Walmart's deployment of drone delivery services in North Carolina and Texas in 2020, the company announced plans to expand its drone delivery network to six states, including Arkansas, Florida, Texas, Utah, and Virginia. This plan states that it is possible to deliver over 1 million packages annually to 4 million households.

Amazon, which mentioned the Amazon Prime Air concept in 2013, began drone deliveries in California in June 2022. The company stated it will expand drone delivery areas to the UK and Italy in late 2024.

At Google, the affiliate Google X handled drone development, and its subsidiary Wing has been performing drone deliveries since 2018. They have a total track record of over 140,000 deliveries (as of 2021) across three countries: Texas in the US, Queensland in Australia, and Finland.

UPS also began a service to transport medical supplies to hospitals in 2019.

2-2. Ground-based Drone Logistics

With the enforcement of the revised Road Act in April 2023, it became possible for automated driving vehicles monitored remotely by humans to travel on public roads. As a result, it is expected that logistics utilizing robots on land will also become active in the future. To date, there have been cases such as ENEOS Holdings, Inc. conducting demonstration experiments in central Tokyo in collaboration with the robot development venture ZMP, Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. conducting demonstration experiments for individual delivery in Ishikari City, Hokkaido, and Japan Post conducting robot delivery experiments in office buildings in Nagoya.

In Japan's national strategy regarding automated driving, the automation and unmanned operation of large logistics trucks and last-mile passenger transport are presented as the two pillars. Regarding automated trucks, experiments such as having multiple truck vehicles travel in a platoon were conducted on the Shin-Tomei Expressway before it opened.

At the Keio University Shonan Fujisawa Campus (SFC), there is also a history of conducting delivery experiments using delivery robots on campus in 2018 in collaboration with Lawson and ZMP.

In the United States, automated truck logistics is progressing at three levels: trunk transport, regional delivery, and last-mile transport. Although the movement is somewhat more cautious compared to automated taxis, which are already seeing practical use, it appears to be moving steadily.

Regarding trunk transport, Aurora Innovation, founded in 2017, aims to realize an automated truck system without drivers between Dallas and Houston, Texas, by the end of 2024. Sweden-based Einride plans to deploy the large automated trucks it is developing to the US and Germany.

In medium-distance regional transport, Walmart is utilizing automated trucks for regular cargo operations between warehouses and stores between Arkansas, US, and Toronto, Canada. The supermarket chain Kroger is also performing grocery delivery using automated vehicles, and Tyson Foods is using automated trucks to deliver goods between distribution centers and warehouses. IKEA's US subsidiary is conducting test operations of large automated trucks with a driver on board for deliveries between warehouses and stores in Texas.

Last-mile transport can be divided into individual delivery where automated vehicles travel on general roads, and delivery where delivery robots travel on side roads or private property. Because last-mile transport has low travel speeds and the cost per unit is inexpensive, it is easy for new entrants such as ventures to join. In the case of individual delivery on general roads, Nuro, which partners with Domino's Pizza, 7-Eleven, and Uber, is well known, but progress is not very well known due to factors like mass layoffs of employees. Cleavon, a venture from Estonia, is providing delivery services in Texas and participating in operational tests in a smart city in Georgia. Regarding robot delivery on side roads and private property, there are initiatives by Amazon Scout, Starship Technologies, and Serve Robotics, but they seem to have scaled back in recent years.

2-3. Maritime Drone Logistics

In initiatives for maritime logistics using unmanned vessels, Japan is at the global forefront *1.

The development of unmanned vessels is still in progress, but a consortium led by Japan Post and NTT has succeeded in simulated autonomous navigation of a coastal container ship for a round trip of approximately 790 km between Tokyo Port and Tsu-Matsusaka Port. Additionally, a consortium led by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines has succeeded in unmanned operation of a coastal container ship for approximately 270 km between Tsuruga Port and Sakaiminato Port. The first in the world to work on the development of unmanned vessels was the UK's Rolls-Royce, which launched the industry-academic collaboration project AAWA in 2015 and succeeded in fully autonomous operation of a ferry owned by Finland's Finferries in 2018. In the future, they aim to commercialize automated container ships operating between their own factories and export ports, with plans to put unmanned remote-controlled ships into practical use in 2030 and fully unmanned ships in 2035.

Yara Birkeland, developed by a partnership between Norway's Yara International and Kongsberg, began commercial operations of an electric, fully autonomous vessel in Porsgrunn, Norway, in the spring of 2022.

As we have seen, drone logistics is being deployed on land, sea, and air in recent years. In terms of the low cost of drone development and ease of market entry, the social implementation of logistics by flying drones seems to be progressing faster than on land or sea. However, as the author, I believe that for air and land drone logistics, a shakeout will occur in the future, and in terms of commercial use, maritime drone logistics may go one step ahead. There are various challenges *2 for the commercial use of drone logistics in the future, and I have summarized the main points below.

(1) Social Acceptance

Despite the recognized benefits of drones in terms of unmanned operation, labor-saving, efficiency, and low environmental impact in logistics, one reason social implementation takes time is social acceptance. In particular, flying drones and automated ground vehicles carry the risk of causing accidents due to crashes or collisions.

Accidents involving automated taxis are frequent in the US as well, and sometimes the operation of dangerous vehicles or aircraft that can cause fatal accidents is not accepted. In the case of flying drones, while there is convenience for residents on the receiving side who have goods delivered, residents on the departure side may perceive them only as a source of noise. Social implementation becomes possible only after clearing such social acceptance. The Japanese "zero-risk belief" is also one factor making the social implementation of advanced technologies like drones difficult.

(2) Operational Costs

The operation of drone logistics can require significant costs for safe operation management. Drones are often called "unmanned aircraft," but they are unmanned in the sense that a pilot is not on board; a certain number of personnel must be allocated for safe operation management. In Japan, a license is required to fly drones, so it is necessary to prepare multiple qualified individuals for operation.

When conducting social experiments for drone logistics using UAVs, several to a dozen or so people manage safe operations, so it is not uncommon for the entire social experiment budget to be squeezed by labor costs. Securing qualified personnel requires the cooperation of drone schools, so the intentions of drone schools tend to be strongly reflected. Resistance to "unmanned operation" and "autonomy" is strong, to the point where it can't be helped if it's called a social experiment just to maintain the drone school business. Unless this situation can be improved, it is difficult to imagine drone logistics becoming widespread in Japan.

(3) Aircraft Development

Various types of aircraft are utilized in drone logistics. For flying drones, rotorcraft, fixed-wing aircraft, and VTOL aircraft (combining fixed-wing and rotorcraft) are used. Vehicles used for land transport include automated trucks, delivery pallets, and delivery robots. Unmanned vessels are utilized for maritime transport. Each is developed according to transport distance and payload.

Various companies, including ventures and large corporations, are involved in aircraft development, but it is thought that the development of logistics rotorcraft with large payloads will not necessarily proceed easily. There is an absolute shortage of engineers, leading to a scramble for engineers in the development of each aircraft. Additionally, due to difficulties in securing funding leading to unpaid salaries and widening salary gaps between companies, aircraft development sometimes does not proceed smoothly.

The challenges listed here are not exhaustive, but only after overcoming such challenges can drone logistics transition from the social experiment stage to the social implementation stage.

Drone logistics is a beneficial means to solve the various issues in the logistics field currently being pointed out. In the future, once the technologies for air, sea, and land drone logistics are all in place, discussions will likely proceed regarding the optimal combination of drones suitable for local communities.

By facing the challenges for the social implementation of drone logistics and building a society that lives alongside robots, will we be able to overcome the 2024 Problem?

In the world of the manga "Doraemon," logistics technologies using air tubes, robots, and automated trucks are depicted. There are 77 years left until the 22nd century when Doraemon is born (89 years until his birthday). The "future" is already before our eyes.

*2 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2023) "Guidelines for Delivery of Goods, etc. Utilizing Drones Ver. 4.0 [Main Text]" Guidelines for Delivery of Goods, etc. Utilizing Drones