[Special Feature: Thinking about Graduate Education] Naoyuki Ogata: The Yin and Yang of Graduate Education

Looking back at graduate school policy in the 21st century, professional graduate schools were institutionalized in 2003, and based on the "Graduate Education Promotion Measures Outline" following the 2005 report "Graduate Education in a New Era," measures such as the COE Program and Graduate School GP were launched. Furthermore, following the 2011 report "Graduate Education in a Globalized Society," the "Program for Leading Graduate Schools" was also started. However, voices of doubt and criticism regarding the graduate school system and the various measures based on it have never ceased (e.g., Amano 2011, Kaneko 2013, etc.). This indicates that the graduate school system faces various challenges, and the various measures have not served as a miracle cure to overcome them. Below, I would like to return to various statistics and surveys that serve as basic materials for thinking about graduate schools, and consider the graduate school issues since 2000, focusing on Doctoral Programs, from the perspectives of post-graduation careers and support such as scholarships.

First, let's look at the application status (Figure 1). Demand for Master's programs is influenced by recruitment trends for Bachelor's programs—there is a role as an adjustment valve where the number of students advancing increases during economic downturns, so there is an aspect where the number of applicants does not necessarily equal demand. However, since the 2010s, it has hovered around 120,000, despite fluctuations. For professional degree programs, there was a period after the system's launch when applicants exceeded 40,000, but this dropped sharply toward the mid-2010s and has since hovered around 20,000. This is due to the expectations and frustrations regarding the Law School system. What about Doctoral Programs? They turned toward a downward trend after peaking at 22,550 in 2003. Applicants in 2021 were 17,729, falling to 79% of the peak level. The rate of Master's graduates advancing to Doctoral Programs was 17% in 2000 but has continued to decline, falling below 10% in 2021.

Next is the number of enrollees (Figure 2). Master's programs temporarily exceeded 80,000 but have generally hovered in the 70,000 range, and the value obtained by dividing the number of applicants by the number of enrollees (labeled as "Application Ratio") is 1.5 to 1.7 times. Professional degree programs turned toward a decrease after peaking at 9,468 in 2008, falling to 6,638 in 2014, but have been on a recovery trend since then. The "Application Ratio" fluctuated greatly depending on the situation of Law Schools but has stabilized around 2.3 times in recent years. The "Application Ratio" for Doctoral Programs has hovered in the low 1.2 range, but the number of enrollees has been on a downward trend since peaking at 18,232 in 2004, falling below 17,000 in 2007, 16,000 in 2011, and 15,000 in 2016, with no stop to the decline in enrollees.

First is the number and rate of those who found employment or advanced to further education (Figure 3). The number of those finding employment or advancing remained stable after increasing until just after 2010 and has been on an upward trend again in the last few years. Taking 2000 as the starting point, the number of those finding employment or advancing in 2021 is 1.6 times higher, and compared to before, Doctoral Programs graduates are more likely to hold some kind of job. This can also be confirmed by the rise in the employment/advancement rate, which hovered at a low level in the high 50% range until the mid-2000s but rose to the 60% range after 2008 and has been rising gently since then. Certainly, while the exit situation is on an improvement trend in the long term, the level of the employment/advancement rate itself cannot be said to be high.

In addition, it should be noted that the exit improvement is occurring while enrollees are decreasing. It is not a cycle of "employment conditions improving and enrollees expanding." In the MEXT National Institute of Science and Technology Policy's "Survey on Career Decision-Making of Science and Engineering Master's Students in Japan" (2009), anxiety and dissatisfaction regarding exit issues remain large. In addition to "I am worried about employment after completing Doctoral Programs" (70% "Agree"), more than half responded "Agree" to "Lifetime wages and other performance are poor relative to the cost of advancing to Doctoral Programs" and "I do not find jobs such as university faculty attractive" (62% and 52%, respectively). Regarding important matters when considering advancing to Doctoral Programs (selecting the top three), 54% cited "Increase in employment of Doctoral Programs graduates in private companies, etc." Furthermore, 41% and 32% respectively responded that "Improvement of employment conditions for Doctoral Programs graduates in private companies, such as preferential treatment in wages and promotion" and "Possibility of Doctoral Programs graduates finding academic posts" are important.

Next is the employment destination. Since many Doctoral Programs graduates take up professional and technical positions, we focus on employees by industry. In the past, the main employment destination for Doctoral Programs graduates was academia. The percentage of those employed in "Education," which includes higher education under the service industry category, was high at 59% in 1970 and 58% in 1980. However, this value had already been decreasing for 30 years, falling to 41% in 1990 and 33% in 2000. Although simple comparisons cannot be made as the categories of the School Basic Survey have changed since then, I would like to confirm the employment trends in "Education, Learning Support" and "Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services" (Figure 4) *1.

First, the number of those employed in "Education, Learning Support" continued to expand from 2,563 in 2003 to 4,091 in 2021, but has been on a downward trend since then. While the share of all employees remains in the 30% range, it is still the largest employment destination. Next is "Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services." This also expanded from 929 in 2003 to 1,531 in 2014, but has since turned toward a decrease. During this period, the share of these two categories in the total has hovered in the 40% range with no major change. Aside from these two categories, the area with many employees is medical and health hygiene within "Medical, Health Care and Welfare." While there is no change in its share of the total, it has consistently hovered from the mid to high 20% range.

Scholarships influence graduate school advancement and life after advancement to no small extent. Although the situation varies depending on living arrangements and the type of institution, the averages are as follows (Tables 1 and 2). The amount of scholarship received is higher in professional degree programs than in Master's programs, and higher in Doctoral Programs than in professional degree programs. There is a 1.7-2.0 times difference between Master's and Doctoral Programs, and the significance of scholarships is greater in Doctoral Programs. The share of scholarships in income is also 3-9 percentage points higher in Doctoral Programs than in Master's programs. What I want to focus on is the change during this period. The amount of scholarship received once rose in Master's, professional degree, and Doctoral Programs, but has since decreased rapidly. Compared to the peak amounts, it is 150,000 yen less for Master's programs, 470,000 yen less for professional degree programs, and 280,000 yen less for Doctoral Programs. In parallel, the share in income has also decreased, with the drop since 2012 being particularly large. Compared to the peak, it is 8 percentage points less for Master's programs, 17 percentage points less for professional degree programs, and 15 percentage points less for Doctoral Programs.

Does this change mean that the living conditions of graduate students have become more severe? Examining the scholarship reception ratio first, it has declined in all programs. The change compared to the peak is a decrease of 11 percentage points for Master's programs, 26 percentage points for professional degree programs, and 15 percentage points for Doctoral Programs. Conversely, the ratio of those saying they do not need to receive a scholarship is rising. One background factor for the decline in scholarship amounts and their share in income is the increase in graduate students who do not need to receive scholarships. However, it cannot be simply interpreted that the scholarship issue is heading toward a resolution. There are two possible scenarios. Scenario 1 is "The number of working adult students who do not need scholarships has increased," and Scenario 2 is "The number of those with affluent households has increased, even among non-working students."

I would like to verify this scenario, albeit partially, by focusing on Doctoral Programs. Table 3 shows a decrease in the share of income from families and an increase in the share from regular jobs and others. The background is the increase in working students. In fact, the number of adult enrollees in Doctoral Programs continued to increase consistently until 2018 (Figure 5), and currently, 40% of Doctoral Programs enrollees are working adults. Part of the decrease in scholarship recipients can likely be explained by Scenario 1. However, in Table 3, the share of income from part-time jobs has also been on an upward trend again since 2012. The increase in adult students should be welcomed from the perspective of recurrent education and reskilling. But alongside this, the possibility of an increase in non-working students who give up on Doctoral Programs or those forced to work part-time cannot be denied. According to the "Survey on Career Decision-Making of Science and Engineering Master's Students in Japan" (cited above), 76% responded "Agree" to "I cannot see an economic prospect for living if I advance to Doctoral Programs," and 24% cited "Expansion of economic support for Doctoral Programs students" as their top priority when advancing to Doctoral Programs. The issue of economic support, centered on the non-adult students who make up 60% of Doctoral Programs, has not been resolved. If Scenario 2 is consequently being brought about, it can be rephrased as the deprivation of learning opportunities in Doctoral Programs.

Policies for the enhancement of graduate education are still ongoing. For example, the Science, Technology, and Innovation Basic Plan (2021) sets numerical targets such as tripling the number of Doctoral Programs students receiving an amount equivalent to living expenses by 2025 (70% of those advancing from Master's programs), increasing the number of Faculty of Science and Technology doctoral degree holders hired by industry by 1,000 (65%), and halving the share of on-campus administrative work in the duties of university faculty, as well as making the ratio of faculty under 40 years old 30% or more in the future. Conversely, this is evidence that the reform and expansion of graduate schools are not progressing as envisioned.

On the other hand, while the high income effect of graduate school graduation has been pointed out (Shima and Fujimura 2014, Shimoyama and Murata 2019, etc.), robust conclusions on the income effect of Doctoral Programs have not been obtained due to issues such as sample size. Furthermore, even if there were an effect, it is not perceived by graduate students as a gut feeling. Providing accurate information is essential. However, people do not act based on statistics. Rather than being presented with trends for Japan as a whole like this time, the actual situation of the seniors in front of them and the words of their academic advisor carry more weight. What is needed is an experience where living support is substantial and career prospects open up at the individual graduate school level. Toward that end, how is each graduate school trying to position its own Doctoral Programs while engaging in dialogue with companies and others, and is policy providing support tailored to the context of individual graduate schools? If there is a gap there, both the system and policy will continue to wander.

*1 "Education, Learning Support" includes school education (including higher education) and other education/learning support, while "Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services" includes scientific and development Research Centers and Institutes (including various research labs), professional services such as legal and financial affairs, advertising, and technical services such as veterinary medicine and civil engineering/architecture.

Ikuo Amano (2011) "Reading the Graduate School Report," IDE 532, pp. 8-14.

Motohisa Kaneko (2013) "The Reality of Graduate Schools," IDE 552, pp. 4-11.

Kazunori Shima and Masashi Fujimura (2014) "Income Function Analysis of University and Graduate School Graduates: Focusing on University Education Experience, Perception of Learning Effectiveness, and Self-Learning Investment," Journal of University Management and Policy 4, pp. 23-36.

Akira Shimoyama and Osamu Murata (2019) "Economic Returns of Advancing to Graduate School: Estimation of Wage Premium and Internal Rate of Return Using the Employment Status Survey," Journal of Household Economics 50, pp. 1-17.