[Special Feature: Fukuzawa Yukichi and Statistics] What was brought about by the letter in which Fukuzawa Yukichi recommended his "Statistics Comrades" to Okuma Shigenobu / Masahiko Okuzumi

Fukuzawa Yukichi and Okuma Shigenobu first met in 1873 (Meiji 6). Until then, they had both harbored mutual prejudices, thinking of each other as being like cats and dogs. However, people around them schemed to have them meet, thinking it would be interesting. When they finally met, they hit it off immediately and reportedly formed a close relationship.*1

The contents of the letter sent by Fukuzawa Yukichi to Okuma Shigenobu in January 1879 (hereinafter referred to as the "Fukuzawa Letter") are as shown on the next page. According to the letter, Fukuzawa recommended 13 Keio University alumni and others as "Statistics Comrades." Additionally, he added the names of Koji Sugi, Kinsaku Arai, and Ayatoshi Kure as "people of the Statistics Bureau" (Table 1). While it is not clear exactly what the purpose of this letter was, it suggests that Fukuzawa Yukichi and Okuma Shigenobu were in close contact regarding statistics at that time.

Incidentally, 13 of the 16 people listed in this Fukuzawa Letter were also founding members of Seihyosha, which was established in December 1878 (Meiji 11). According to Shunsaku Nishikawa's "Intellectual Tradition in Keio University: Statistics—From Fukuzawa Yukichi to Masao Yokoyama" (Modern Japanese Studies, Vol. 8), this letter was sent to "urge Okuma Shigenobu to establish a Statistics Institute in the government, accompanied by a list of 'Statistics [Research] Comrades' from Keio University who formed Seihyosha." However, no materials could be confirmed to support such an interpretation. It is also possible to interpret this letter as Fukuzawa listing personnel in response to a request from Okuma for recommendations.

Furthermore, according to Chapter 5, Section (4) "The Beginning of the Census" in "The 85-Year History of Marquis Okuma, Vol. 1" (Committee for the Compilation of the 85-Year History of Marquis Okuma, 1926), it states: "In early 1880 (Meiji 13), he (Okuma) spoke to Fukuzawa Yukichi about the necessity of statistics and expressed his hope that the brilliant minds of Keio University would devote their efforts to statistical research. Fukuzawa also understood his intentions and sought to contribute to the progress of statistics. It appears that among the newcomers of the Juku, there were those who knew the necessity of statistics and met from time to time as comrades to conduct research. These matters are clear in the letter Fukuzawa presented to him."

According to page 21 of Koichi Ito's "A Historical Walk through Statistics," regarding the letter in which Fukuzawa Yukichi recommended his statistics comrades to Okuma Shigenobu, it states: "Masao Yokoyama infers that it was likely 1879 (Meiji 12) because the lineup in the attachment (to the letter) is almost the same as the lineup at the time of Seihyosha's founding. However, if that were the case, Seihyosha would have already been launched, making it unclear what he intended to ask of Okuma."

Furthermore, in the "Documents Collected by the Okuma Family (Excerpts) Vol. 2" edited by Kenkichi Ichijima and held by the Waseda University Library (edited by the Waseda University Archives), it is also supplemented in parentheses as "Meiji 12." In any case, the only theory regarding the year is "Meiji 12," and no other theories advocating for a different year exist.

Incidentally, according to "Naruhodo Statistics Academy" on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Statistics Bureau website, "Okuma felt the need for accurate statistics while working on financial consolidation as the 4th Minister of Finance (equivalent to the current Minister of Finance) of the Meiji government. He proposed the establishment of the Statistics Institute and took the lead in statistical development by serving as its first director." Since Okuma served as the 4th Minister of Finance from October 25, Meiji 6 to February 28, Meiji 13, it is inferred that the "Ministry" mentioned in the Fukuzawa Letter's phrase "by chance, I shall do my best for the intentions of your Ministry" refers to the Ministry of Finance. It is thought that the letter introducing the statistics comrades was issued in response to a request for cooperation from Okuma Shigenobu, who was the Minister of Finance.

Furthermore, it could be inferred that Okuma requested Fukuzawa to recommend personnel expected to play a central role in the Statistics Bureau, and Fukuzawa responded by adding the note "people of the Statistics Bureau."

Seihyosha was a statistical association founded in December 1878 (Meiji 11) by pioneers of statistics centered around Koji Sugi (renamed the Statistical Association in April 1879, and later the Tokyo Statistical Association).

According to Takeshi Yabuuchi's "Research on the History of Statistical Development in Japan," regarding the origin of the name Seihyosha, it states: "The name comes from the purpose of the association, which was to 'deliberate on table-making (seihyō)' (listening to opinions and debating), namely, to make the collection and compilation of statistical data the primary objective." However, the exact origin of the term "Seihyo" remains unclear. According to Morizaburo Ukawa's "History of the Statistical Association" (Statistical Collection, inaugural issue (Meiji 13)), Seihyosha was to "extract from selected domestic and foreign chronological reports to produce chronological tables..." This suggests that Koji Sugi may have devised the term "Seihyo" and named the company "Seihyosha" based on the "production of political tables (seihyō)" mentioned in the "Outline of Tabulation" translated by Mamichi Tsuda and published in Meiji 7.

Looking at the movement toward the founding of Seihyosha, Tokujirō Obata and others, who were listed as one of the statistics comrades in the Fukuzawa Letter, took the lead in preparations, and Seihyosha was founded in December 1878 (as mentioned above, many of the members at the time of founding match the Keio alumni or related persons listed in the attachment to the Fukuzawa Letter). Considering this, it is possible that Fukuzawa's thoughts, which pointed out the importance of statistics in his books (such as An Outline of a Theory of Civilization), became the driving force for Tokujirō Obata and others toward the founding of Seihyosha. Incidentally, Obata's name also appears in the paragraph following the seasonal greetings in the Fukuzawa Letter.

In February 1879 (Meiji 12), the year after the founding of Seihyosha, Koki Watanabe, Akira Mayahara, and Azusa Ono also had a plan to start an academic society related to statistics. When they consulted Koji Sugi, Sugi noted that the purpose was largely the same as Seihyosha. As a result of discussions, they decided to merge on March 6 of the same year. Furthermore, they appointed a committee to draft rules, which were decided on April 1. The name was changed to the Statistical Association (later the Tokyo Statistical Association), and five people—Koki Watanabe, Azusa Ono, Taizo Abe, Fumio Yano, and Tokujirō Obata—were appointed as managers and entrusted with various matters.*4

Here, Azusa Ono (deeply involved in the Constitutional Progressive Party and the founding of Tokyo Senmon Gakko, later Waseda University) is famous as a brain for Okuma Shigenobu. Also, Taizo Abe (founder of Japan's first life insurance company, who created the first modern life insurance business in Japan by deriving premiums from expected mortality rates calculated through statistical processing), Fumio Yano, and Tokujirō Obata were, so to speak, students of Fukuzawa (Keio University alumni). Among them, Abe and Obata are listed as statistics comrades in the Fukuzawa Letter.*5 Yano is said to have started visiting Okuma's residence due to the interaction between Fukuzawa and Okuma, eventually becoming a close aide to Okuma. Additionally, Yano worked at the Statistics Institute (with Okuma Shigenobu as director) established in Meiji 14, along with Tsuyoshi Inukai and Yukio Ozaki.

Okuma Shigenobu proposed the establishment of the Statistics Institute in 1881 (Meiji 14) and became its first director himself. The Fukuzawa Letter from two years prior may have had some influence on Okuma's vision for the Statistics Institute.

Okuma's vision for the Statistics Institute and his view of statistics can be read from his public speaking at the Statistical Discussion Group in 1898 (Statistical Collection No. 205). According to it: "...The enthusiastic Mr. Sugi said at that time that he wanted to try investigating the population... so he did Kai Province as a test. If we had followed the momentum of that time, we should have progressed much faster. Furthermore, (statistics) simply won't work under the Ministry of Finance. It must be done with sufficiently strong authority; it won't work if each ministry does it individually. No matter what, the Ministry of Finance alone is not enough. Therefore, we created the Statistics Institute in the center... and decided to do it with one large organization... I received quite a bit of criticism for doing something big as a personal hobby. However, this is by no means a hobby. ...I created the Statistics Institute and then the Board of Audit. It was a plan to consolidate authority in the center to organize the administration, a combination of political strategy and the desire to truly advance statistics, which led to the creation of a high-status entity..."

Furthermore, he argued: "...We conduct national administration through debate. Politics, society, and academia are all about debate. What should be the basis for that debate? There must be something based on a single scientific principle. Vague ideals or vague imaginations alone do not provide a firm basis for debate. As the debate progresses, what decides the debate is evidence. ...How is this problem decided? It is whether there are statistics to rely on here or not." This shows that Okuma viewed statistics from the perspective of EBPM (Evidence-Based Policy Making), which is still applicable today. The utility of statistics is also discussed in Fukuzawa's books such as An Outline of a Theory of Civilization,*6 and it is thought that Okuma and Fukuzawa shared common ground in their views on statistics.

From the "Fukuzawa Letter," I believe we can see how the friendship between the two great figures, Fukuzawa Yukichi and Okuma Shigenobu, in the early Meiji era became a driving force for the development of government statistics.

Following the Fukuzawa Letter in January 1879, the establishment of the Statistical Association (later the Tokyo Statistical Association) through the merger with Seihyosha occurred in April of the same year. In April 1881, Okuma Shigenobu proposed the establishment of the Statistics Institute, and in May of the same year, Okuma himself assumed the post of director. Throughout this process, Fukuzawa's students (Keio University alumni) and Okuma's close aides were deeply involved. In a sense, the introduction of personnel through the Fukuzawa Letter can be said to hold an important position in the history of statistics in our country.

The Tokyo Statistical Association, a private statistical organization, made significant contributions to the progress of statistical theory and technology during the Meiji and Taisho eras through the publication of its journal "Statistical Collection" and the holding of lectures. It also contributed to the development of statistics by promoting the realization of the census through repeated proposals and petitions to the government, the House of Representatives, and the House of Peers, and by nurturing many statisticians. These activities bore fruit, and the first census was realized in 1920 (Taisho 9).

The 21st census to be conducted in 2020 (Reiwa 2) marks the 100th anniversary since the first census. The social benefit of the census in building the foundation for the future is universal, and I have reaffirmed that it was precisely because of the activities of private statistical organizations in the Meiji and Taisho eras that we were able to reach this 100-year milestone.

By the way, in relation to the social benefits of the census,*7 I recall the opening part of Chapter 1 (Chapitre premier) of "Traité Théorique et Pratique de Statistique" (1878) by the 19th-century French statistician Maurice Block: "Il n’y a aucune exagération à dire qu’on fait de la statistique depuis qu’il y a des États." A literal translation would be, "It is no exaggeration to say that statistics have been conducted since states have existed" (statistics are indispensable for state management). Masashi Tsukahara translated this in "Theory and Practice of Statistics" (1943) as "It is no exaggeration to say that where there is a state, there are statistics." Considering the year of publication, it seems like a message (a warning) implicitly suggesting the mistake of neglecting statistics in wartime Japan. And I felt that this warning must be listened to sincerely even in modern society.*8

For general reference materials, please refer to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Statistics Bureau website "Statistical Library Mini Topics (No. 3, as well as No. 2 and No. 14)."