[Feature: Outlook for Japan-South Korea Relations] Soichi Tsukamoto: Watching the "MZ Generation" and the New South Korean Administration

Except for young people familiar with K-POP, many Japanese people may associate South Korea with intense political and social movements, as suggested by the saying, "When the administration changes, the president gets arrested." Indeed, since democratization, South Korea has always been divided between conservatives and progressives (referred to as "progressives" in South Korea), who have fought fiercely. Even in the presidential election held on March 9, 2022, Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative opposition "People Power Party" defeated Lee Jae-myung of the progressive ruling "Democratic Party of Korea" in a very close race with a vote margin of only 0.73 percentage points, finally bringing the matter to a close. That is precisely why it was natural for Yoon Suk-yeol to state that he would aim for "national unity" immediately after securing his victory and deciding on a change of government.

However, what awaits the new administration, which will be inaugurated on May 10, is not only a National Assembly called "Small Ruling, Large Opposition," where the progressive forces—now the opposition—hold the majority. There are also many social problems that have long remained unresolved by both conservative and progressive administrations. Yet, there is a sense of uncertainty as to whether the new administration is prepared to face these issues while moving forward with "unity." In this article, focusing on gender issues, I would like to listen to the voices of women who feel conflicted about the results of this election and consider the role the new administration should play.

Now that the election is over, Yoon Suk-yeol, as the next president, is expected to fulfill the role of repairing the domestic rifts that widened during the fierce struggle, while also being mindful of the progressive forces on the losing side, as he promised "unity." It is not that he is not working on this. For example, on April 3, he nominated Han Duck-soo, who held key positions including Prime Minister under the progressive Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations, as the first Prime Minister of the new administration. On that day, he also attended a memorial service for the "April 3 Incident" held on Jeju Island in southern South Korea. This incident, in which many islanders were suppressed and killed by the military and police over several years starting in 1948, has a memorial service every year, but Yoon is the first conservative president or president-elect to attend.

On the other hand, a strained relationship with the Moon Jae-in administration has continued. The first meeting between Yoon Suk-yeol and President Moon Jae-in took place 19 days after the election. Regarding his campaign promise to move the presidential office to the Ministry of National Defense building in Seoul, Yoon insists on realizing it simultaneously with the inauguration of his administration, despite opposition from the Moon administration.

Another campaign promise of Yoon Suk-yeol that progressive forces strongly criticize is the abolition of the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family. The ministry was newly established in 2001 as the predecessor Ministry of Women, and has long been responsible for policies such as "promoting women's rights and interests and expanding social participation." However, while Yoon Suk-yeol evaluated the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family as having been "established at a time when gender discrimination was severe and having fulfilled its role such as enhancing the legal system," he stated that "from now on, we should respond more reliably to individual and specific cases of injustice and crime, and its historical mission has ended."

At a time when gender issues are emphasized, Yoon Suk-yeol clearly announced the abolition of the ministry in charge of women's issues—which seems to go against the trend of the times—two months before the vote, as the election campaign reached its climax. On March 8, International Women's Day, the day before the vote, he also posted his argument for abolishing the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family on Facebook again. These moves by Yoon were clearly reflected in the election results. Looking at the voting situation by age group from exit polls conducted on election day by three terrestrial broadcasters (KBS, MBC, and SBS), Yoon Suk-yeol won many votes from men in their 20s and 30s, while losing votes from women, especially women in their 20s (see figure).

In this election campaign, various public opinion polls had already made it clear that the number of voters wanting a change of government significantly exceeded the majority, and Yoon Suk-yeol was seen as having the advantage. As a result of losing the votes of young women, the Yoon camp ended up struggling. This young generation is called the "MZ Generation," combining the Millennial generation born from the 1980s to the early 2000s and Generation Z born from the mid-1990s to the 2000s. While Yoon Suk-yeol succeeded in capturing the male votes of the "MZ Generation," he ended up losing the female votes.

Originally, the younger generation was considered to have a strong progressive tendency, and in fact, this age group was the core that brought down the Park Geun-hye administration and brought about the birth of the Moon Jae-in administration in 2017. However, in the Seoul and Busan mayoral elections held in April 2021, the "MZ Generation" became the driving force for victory by voting for conservative candidates, surprising the political world. In fact, the "MZ Generation" is said to have a stronger tendency to prioritize daily life over conservative or progressive ideologies. Because the stagnant situation—such as struggling with job shortages and being unable to hope for home ownership due to the abnormal surge in real estate prices—did not resolve but rather worsened under the Moon Jae-in administration, the "MZ Generation" gave up on progressivism as well, seeing it as nothing more than old politics lacking the ability or mindset to carve out a bright future. To use an analogy, if South Korean politics and society are divided into conservative and progressive on a flat plane, the "MZ Generation" would be a group that thinks about things in a three-dimensional space. They are people who do not fit into simple attributes of conservative or progressive.

The Yoon Suk-yeol camp focused on the "MZ Generation" for the presidential election, but instead of this generation as a whole, they deployed a tactic that emphasized "Idenam," which means "men in their 20s" in Korean. This was based on the judgment that riding the rising tide of "anti-feminism" among "Idenam" would lead to more votes. Among young men, many are dissatisfied, feeling that they are forced to take leaves of absence from university due to the conscription system, and that women are given preferential treatment in employment. The Yoon Suk-yeol camp's argument for abolishing the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family was an attempt to align with the voices of "Idenam" who appeal to each other about "reverse discrimination" on the internet. Yoon also proposed strengthening punishments for the crime of false accusation, where women make false reports to disparage men even when there is no damage from sexual crime cases.

It is a fact that the gender gap in South Korea has narrowed over time. According to the "Global Gender Gap Report" published annually by the World Economic Forum, the index indicating the gender gap improved from 0.616 in 2006 to 0.678 in 2021. Japan has not changed much, going from 0.645 to 0.656, and considering that South Korea overtook Japan during this period, the difference is clear.

In addition to such data, many South Korean citizens likely feel the advancement of women firsthand. When I was stationed in Seoul from 2012 to 2015, I heard that 70% of those who pass the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs' diplomat exam are women. From the perspective of those administering the exam, their true feeling is that they want to adjust the gender ratio, but this is the result when grading objectively. When I had a casual conversation with a male executive at the ministry and asked, "Is there any movement to give male applicants a boost?" he shook his head vigorously and said, "No way. If I even mentioned such a thing, it would be exposed on social media immediately, and my future career would be closed off."

While young men have had a sense of victimhood, feeling that women are being given preferential treatment, they have been unable to speak up until now. Now, their true feelings have begun to leak out and have become a major trend. The person who led the strategy to go after these "MZ Generation" male votes is Lee Jun-seok, the representative of the "People Power Party." He is also part of the "MZ Generation" and is a politician who attracted the attention of young people and others with his skillful eloquence calling for party reform and renewal, and active social media posts. He led the Seoul mayoral election to victory and was elected party representative in 2021 at the age of 36 without any experience as a lawmaker. On the other hand, after the presidential election, Lee has repeatedly made remarks criticizing disability groups' demonstrations at subway stations and on trains for expanded rights, calling them "something that disrupts social order." Lee Jun-seok is being criticized for inciting hatred against the socially vulnerable and "misogyny" regarding women's issues, even though he will become the representative of the ruling party after the new administration is inaugurated.

In this presidential election, women of the "MZ Generation" were, in a sense, written off by the Yoon Suk-yeol camp. As mentioned earlier, many women of this generation voted for Lee Jae-myung, and it is easy to imagine that they feel regret about the influence of the Yoon camp's male-oriented stance and the fact that their own votes became dead votes. So, how do they view the current situation surrounding gender in South Korea?

I conducted telephone interviews with two women in their 20s and 30s who said they voted for Lee Jae-myung in the election (March 30 and 31). The purpose was to hear the voices of "MZ Generation" women who were not considered in this election. Although within a limited scope, the results provided a glimpse into the "MZ Generation" who generally have no particular attachment to ideology, and the inner thoughts of women who cannot help but be sensitive to gender issues.

A university student in her 20s revealed that she voted for Lee Jae-myung despite being part of the floating voters who do not support a specific party. Regarding the Yoon Suk-yeol camp, she criticized them for "targeting a specific extreme part of the community rather than general men in their 20s, and encouraging conflict over gender." The student also testified that "looking at the (online) university student community, misogynistic remarks are commonly seen." She likely feels that women are being attacked on a daily basis in her immediate surroundings. Furthermore, she stated, "Previous women's policies were not about giving benefits to women, but about correcting parts that were not equal." This is an argument that women's policies should be continued.

An office worker in her 20s, who was originally a supporter of the "Democratic Party of Korea," said she became fed up with Lee Jae-myung's real estate development and family scandals and hesitated, considering a third candidate who was not Yoon Suk-yeol either. In the end, she voted for Lee Jae-myung after receiving his measures for young people positively. Regarding the status of women in South Korea, this woman said, "I think the educational level of women has risen considerably compared to before and the situation has improved, but it has improved relatively compared to the past, and I don't think absolute gender equality has been realized." She also stated, "Working in society, I often hear sexist remarks like 'women are like this.' At times of traditional holidays (such as Lunar New Year), there are stories everywhere that only women do the work (such as food preparation) and men and women eat separately," also speaking of daily discrimination. Regarding whether she expects anything from the new Yoon Suk-yeol administration, she dismissed it, saying, "Won't they incite friction over gender? It would be a relief if they could just maintain the current level."

A graduate student in her 30s who is raising a child said that while she voted for Moon Jae-in in the previous election, she was disappointed by the administration's lack of measures on real estate issues and other matters. In this election, after hesitating until the end about who to vote for, she voted for Lee Jae-myung for the reason that he was better than Yoon Suk-yeol. The woman stated that she feels resistance to the fact that men in their 20s, called "Idenam" among the same "MZ Generation," are leaning toward "anti-feminism," and speculated on the male side's feelings as follows: "Men in their 20s have indirectly received the benefits that their fathers' generation enjoyed. They grew up expecting to be able to live that way too, but now in the 21st century, unlike the patriarchal past, the position of men has weakened, and the future they imagined is likely being shaken. They grew up watching their fathers as role models, and while they feel that their mothers and sisters are suffering sacrifices, they don't know the details because it's not about them, and they insist that they grew up in gender equality." This is a sharp observation that young men who inherited male-dominated thinking from their fathers' generation are realizing that it is no longer applicable, while refusing to look at the current situation surrounding women.

An office worker in her 30s criticizes that severe discrimination against women still exists in corporate society. As a story from a friend working at a small to medium-sized enterprise, she said that the annual salaries of two new employees—a woman with a university degree and 8 years of work experience, and a man with a high school diploma and no work experience—were the same. She states that the issue of wages is particularly serious for women. "Looking at the friends around me, they are really struggling with how to make a living and so on. It has become difficult to live in society, and accordingly, it is becoming as difficult for women. Social problems such as rising prices, the minimum wage which is too low in comparison, and the widening class gap must be solved." This is likely a point that women's issues should be solved while tackling the problems of society as a whole. Furthermore, she expresses a sense of caution about women's issues being discussed in connection with the problem of the declining birthrate. "In national policy meetings, the birthrate is handled as a priority (rather than security measures to protect women from crime). Looking at the talk of abolishing the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family flying around, it seems women will become just a means of population reproduction." This is a strong backlash against women being viewed as "birth machines."

There is a female politician in the progressive "Democratic Party of Korea" who actively responds to these women's voices. She is 26-year-old Park Ji-hyun, who belongs to the "MZ Generation." She has a background in carrying out activities as an anonymous university student tracking the "Nth Room Case," a heinous digital crime where sexual photos and videos of women, including minors, were sold for profit. She joined the Lee Jae-myung camp in January 2022, two months before the presidential election. Her appearance in the political world was like a comet, being tapped as the joint interim steering committee chair responsible for rebuilding the party after the election. She attracted attention with her outspoken remarks, and regarding the fact that President Moon Jae-in sent a wreath and party executives attended the funeral when the father of a progressive former governor, who was serving a prison sentence for sexual harassment, passed away, she said, "I am so angry I feel like grabbing them by the collar."

Since she is strict even with people related to her own party, she has harshly criticized Yoon Suk-yeol and Lee Jun-seok throughout the period before and after the election, saying they are "trying to divide gender." She has also called for Lee Jun-seok's resignation. Furthermore, after revealing that she is being ridiculed for coming from a regional university rather than a top-tier university like many other politicians, she once said, "The fact that I entered the Democratic Party shows diversity." She likely has a desire to be a spokesperson for the minority. Park Ji-hyun will aim for victory in the unified local elections to be held in June while appealing her differences from the conservative forces.

However, if women's issues are pushed into the conflict between conservatives and progressives, the progressive forces will also not receive broad support from voters. The aforementioned graduate student in her 30s explains that the issue of gender must not become a binary zero-sum game. "Feminists see that women will be at a disadvantage under existing policies, and 'Idenam' argue that it is reverse discrimination because creating policies to improve women's issues will put men at a disadvantage. Instead, I want them to show many policies that make everyone happy," she says. For that purpose, she says she would even agree to the salary increase for soldiers serving in the conscription, which Yoon Suk-yeol pledged as a campaign promise with the voices of "Idenam" in the background.

Social problems such as the surge in real estate prices and inequality, not just women's issues, should not be talked about only within the struggle between conservatives and progressives. For the citizens, these are serious issues that must be solved regardless of whether they are conservative or progressive. It must be said that this is even more so for the "MZ Generation," who are likely to be placed in socially and economically difficult situations. If the new administration cannot come up with effective measures, the men who voted for Yoon Suk-yeol in the presidential election will also quickly defect, just as expectations for the Moon Jae-in administration withered. As far as looking at the words and actions of Yoon Suk-yeol and Lee Jun-seok, so far, it does not seem that a vector aiming for a broad integration of the citizens is working. Toward the unified local elections in June, there is likely an aim to solidify conservative votes, including "Idenam," similar to the presidential election. The problem is what comes after that.

Will Yoon Suk-yeol, who will become president, be able to show a new vision for the future to South Korean politics and society, where the conflict between conservatives and progressives has been too deeply etched? The term of the South Korean president is five years. Re-election is not possible under the provisions of the Constitution, but long-term governance is possible unless one is impeached like former President Park Geun-hye. Yoon Suk-yeol says he will "break away from the imperial presidency." If so, he must set up a mechanism so that the voices of a wide range of citizens are reflected, even if it takes time. The challenges for the new administration, which will soon be inaugurated, are heavy.