[Feature: The Presidential Election and the Future of America] Ryuichi Kanari: Continuing to Walk the Rust Belt—Why the Trump Phenomenon Persists

Former President Trump took office as U.S. President again in January. With that, my coverage of "Trump Kingdom" has entered its tenth year. Before last year's presidential election, I was repeatedly asked questions like "Can Trump win?", "Is his support base still rock-solid?", and "Why?", but to be honest, there are still many things I don't know.

Over these past nine years, my work has been a cycle of having Trump supporters share their perceptions with me, allowing me to deepen my own understanding as a reporter. It has been a learning process of realizing things like, "I see, they support Trump because they view things that way," or "Their perception differs from mine because of that background."

In this article, I would like to introduce three supporters. I believe the reason "Trump Kingdom" still exists today is because of supporters like them. I will also touch upon their personalities in the hope that it helps increase the resolution of what a "Trump supporter" looks like. These are three individuals among the many who have given me insights since 2015, when I found the Trump phenomenon utterly mysterious. Even after returning to Japan, I find myself remembering my dialogues with them at unexpected moments.

When reporting across rural America, I frequently encounter veterans. Many people also have veterans among their family and friends. Regardless of whether they supported Trump as a person, many of them supported the "America First" and "Non-Interventionism" policies he advocated. Beneath the surface of American society, there is an "engagement fatigue" regarding the international community. Their honest feelings are: "America cannot be the world's policeman," "Leave overseas problems to the local people," and "Prioritize dealing with domestic issues over foreign ones." Sometimes, I sense a resentment toward policymakers—politicians and bureaucrats—who are not the ones going to the battlefield themselves.

I would like to introduce one memorable individual.

Mike (69 at the time of the interview), whom I met at a bar in Youngstown, Ohio, is a Vietnam veteran. After graduating from high school, he was hired by a major local steel mill, but was soon drafted and sent to Vietnam. After his discharge, he worked as a mail carrier for 26 years, but since around age 50, he has suffered from physical ailments and PTSD (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder).

"In the first place, I didn't want to remember or talk about the battlefield, so I just didn't think about it for a long time. I noticed I couldn't watch war movies with a calm mind, but I didn't think this was an illness (the effects of PTSD). When you're young, your head is full of parties with girls and drinking, right? You're busy with work and busy raising kids. But as you get older, you have more time to think deeply. When I started getting symptoms of a hernia and diabetes, I started thinking, 'Why did this suddenly happen?'"

He was a long-time Democratic supporter. Regarding Trump, he disliked the lack of "presidential dignity" in his behavior, but he appreciated his stance of advocating "non-intervention" in overseas problems, and voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

At the time when the policy of withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria was a hot topic, he said, "I don't think (the chaos in Syria) has anything to do with us in the first place. You don't butt into a husband-and-wife argument in someone else's home, do you? I feel like America is doing that. It's sticking its nose too far into overseas problems. I want them to make it so U.S. soldiers can return home sooner." That last part, "make it so U.S. soldiers can return home sooner," is a wish expressed by many veterans and their families.

After retiring as a mail carrier, Mike worked a part-time job as a bus driver, taking local veterans to a specialized hospital in the city of Cleveland. As I frequented Youngstown for reporting, he happened to be at the bar counter and said to me, "If you want to know the true face of America, why don't you listen to the stories of veterans? Do you want to ride my bus?" That became a reality, and when we went to the hospital together, he revealed for the first time that he was a veteran himself and showed me the surgical scars on his abdomen.

"I was 18 when I was drafted. Shortly after I started working at the steel mill, I went to Vietnam in 1968 and came back in '69. I spent two years in the military, but those two years were counted directly toward my years of service at the steel mill. When I returned after finishing my service, I was already in my third year of employment. I felt that my contribution to the country was recognized, and boy, was I happy."

"I've been behind the wheel of the veteran bus for five years. At first, I thought I was unfortunate to have PTSD, but when I go to this hospital, I meet many wounded soldiers who have suffered much worse injuries than I have. Some have no arms, some have no legs. And yet they laugh and say, 'I'm grateful I didn't lose my life.' Some even crack jokes. Hearing that, I stopped complaining about the war. As long as my body can move, I want to be of help to the wounded soldiers."

There are many Americans who share Mike's sentiments. This inward-looking orientation of America is what will have a profound impact on the international community, including Japan.

A message from a political leader to the working class. Joe (61 at the time of the interview), a former steelworker in northeastern Ohio, showed me what that looks like. A long-time union member and Democratic supporter, he became a supporter of the Republican candidate (Trump) for the first time in the 2016 presidential election.

The trigger for Joe's switch was Trump's announcement of his candidacy. It was that press conference on June 26, 2015, where Trump declared his candidacy at Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue in New York.

In his candidacy announcement public speaking, Trump claimed things like "they're bringing drugs and crime," "rapists," and "I will build a wall on the southern border (to stop the influx of immigrants)." After that, he proposed a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States, and before long, he became the target of intense media criticism.

However, for Joe, the highlight of the public speaking was not there.

"I'll be 62 this month. My Social Security (pension) benefits will start. I support Trump because he said he wouldn't cut Social Security. Other politicians want to cut it. There are even politicians proposing to raise the eligibility age to 70. I hate politicians who say things like that. Those guys just shake hands and kiss babies before the election, and after they're elected, they're at the beck and call of big donors; they can't be trusted." "Politicians live a long time, so they easily say 'we'll raise the pension eligibility age.' I can't forgive that. But Trump is different. In his candidacy press conference, he said he would protect Social Security."

After hearing Joe's story, I listened to the candidacy press conference again. Trump did indeed mention Social Security twice during the approximately 45-minute public speaking.

"Unless someone like me brings money back to the nation, Social Security will collapse. Everyone else wants to cut Social Security, but I won't cut it at all. I will bring in money and save Social Security." "We have to protect Medicare (public health insurance for the elderly), Medicaid (public health insurance for low-income earners), and Social Security without cuts."

As Joe told me, this was indeed an important point. In the analysis of why the Democrats lost even after the 2024 presidential election, it has been pointed out that workers shifted from the traditional Democratic Party to the Republican Party. It was a message that resonated with middle-aged and older working-class people who had worked physically demanding jobs and had been union members.

Another reason Joe was drawn to Trump was his criticism of free trade. From his candidacy press conference onward, Trump consistently repeated the message that the U.S. was being beaten by other countries in trade, and that well-paying manufacturing jobs were being taken away from the U.S.

After the inauguration of the Trump administration, when I pointed out that "there is no sign of 'well-paying jobs' returning to Ohio even under the Trump administration," Joe defended Trump. "How can any politician do in just one four-year term what they couldn't do for 30 years? If Trump does even 10% of what he promised, I'll be satisfied."

In America today, everyone talks about "division," but Joe spoke from a perspective different from what one hears in urban areas.

"America is made up of two different countries. The people in California don't care about Ohio. They import goods from China and Mexico and put them on trains to send them all over the U.S. That's why the jobs in the 'Heartland' disappeared. The goods they import are things we used to make. Since we make them, there was no need to import them in the first place. When Trump put tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum and prices went up, everyone was crying, but no one in Ohio is crying."

While the statement contains misunderstandings, this is Joe's perception. In his eyes, both the former Republican and Democratic parties only seemed to promote free trade and prioritize the interests of coastal states like California and New York.

Both the criticism of free trade and the protection of the social security system differ greatly in emphasis from traditional Republican candidates who tended to favor "small government." Joe switched to the "Trump Republican Party" because he liked the promise to maintain social security and the criticism of free trade. Those around him were surprised by the switch of a steelworker who had once stood on the front lines of union activities, but he didn't care and drove around town with a "Trump" sign on his car.

In the early days of the Trump era, it was pointed out that the language he used was at a "third-grade level." Some reports stated that "Trump is at a mid-fourth-grade level, the lowest since Truman, who was at a sixth-grade level." I think there was an air of mockery in that.

However, looking back now, what can we say? Considering his track record of expanding support to the working class as a candidate for the Republican Party, which had a strong image as the "party of the wealthy," could it not be said that this was the result of using easy-to-understand language?

When thinking about the "strength" of Trump in expanding his support base, I remember Bob Lawley (61 at the time of the interview), a sandwich shop owner I interviewed in Youngstown, Ohio.

He grew up in a coal mining family; his great-grandfather, grandfather, and father were all coal miners in West Virginia. His father, learning that Youngstown was booming with the steel industry, moved to Ohio in 1951. He worked at the steel mill US Steel for a while and opened a sandwich shop in the 70s. Bob, born in 1956, took it over.

The family supported the Democrats. Bob was also a Democratic supporter when he was young, because "the Democratic Party is the party for the working class." However, during the Reagan administration in the 80s, he began voting for Republican candidates. He says it was because Reagan "wasn't a politician, but came from being a movie actor, and was fun to watch."

That Bob is now an ardent supporter of Trump. When I asked him to explain the reason, he seemed a bit troubled.

"Most of the policies Trump is doing don't particularly make my life easier. I don't know how to answer that. Let's see, for example, the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital and the embassy move. That doesn't help us (our lives). The North Korea issue has nothing to do with me either. Even with tax cuts, every president says similar things, and in the end, I've always paid similar taxes. That's not (the deciding factor)."

Then, he continued.

"I don't know how to explain it, but I enjoy watching him. Even on hard days, he makes me laugh. He makes me want to keep watching the news. Even with the Israel matter, he says what he wants to say. He's not afraid of anyone."

"Anyway, Trump is a fun person. Americans who grew up like me like fun people. Even when he goes to Congress, he's not afraid of anyone. We don't understand even half of what general politicians are talking about. Their talk is too difficult. With Trump, who speaks the same language as us, I feel like I could talk normally right here (without getting nervous). I like him. I'll vote for him next time too."

Amidst fierce competition from franchise stores that compete on price, Bob has run his "small business" for nearly 40 years. He carefully selects vegetable suppliers and incorporates customer feedback into product development. He has hired 20 student part-timers and created jobs in the community.

"I wake up at exactly 2:30 every morning. I take a shower. I make coffee and have a cigarette. I read the news online. I go to work at 5 a.m. The shop is, of course, empty. Around 5:30, the local paper arrives at the stand in front of the shop. I put in some change and buy it. I read the sports section and the obituaries. After that, I prepare the cooking sauce and knead the meatballs. This preparation time is also my time to relax. Working all by myself. At 9 a.m., my daughter comes to work. That's how the shop starts. What I'm doing hasn't changed at all in 40 years. It's the same ritual."

The three people introduced in this article are all individuals who have worked hard. When they, who are also former Democratic supporters, talk about their reasons for supporting Trump for their respective reasons, I feel the reality of Trump's strength.

That said, there are all too serious concerns regarding the next Trump administration.

He shows no interest in ideals such as democracy, liberalism, and multilateralism, which the international community, including Japan, has expected the U.S. President to be a defender of. Far from showing interest, he has actively damaged the norms and institutions that support democracy.

What is most serious is the fact that Trump achieved a second victory in the presidential election last November, even though these tendencies were evident in his first term and materials for judgment were presented, such as his attempt to obstruct the peaceful transfer of power with inflammatory messages after the 2020 presidential election.

In "How Democracies Die" (Shinchosha), Harvard University professor Steven Levitsky and others listed "four points indicating authoritarian behavior": (1) rejecting (or showing little regard for) the democratic rules of the game, (2) denying the legitimacy of political opponents, (3) tolerating or encouraging violence, and (4) taking the lead in trying to deprive opponents (including the media) of their civil liberties. Levitsky and others warned at the time of publication in 2018 that, with the exception of Nixon, not a single major presidential candidate in the past 100 years had met even one of the four criteria, but Trump met all of them. Clearly, the situation is worsening.

Will Trump try to hold onto his supporters in his second term by appealing to non-interventionism (isolationism), protectionism, and anti-illegal immigration? Or, if there is no institutional possibility of a third term, will he stop caring about these constraints (promises)? It is completely impossible to foresee to what extent Trump will seriously respond to the expectations of the worker votes he gathered.

Entrepreneur Elon Musk, who was nominated to head the newly established "Department of Government Efficiency," has not only opposed the formation of labor unions at his own companies but has also challenged the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), an independent administrative agency that enforces major labor relations laws such as the right to organize, the right to collective bargaining, and the prohibition of unfair labor practices. He has also shown enthusiasm for significant cuts to the federal budget.

What will it mean in the future that he, one of the world's wealthiest people, is standing out in such an unusual way? It is also fresh in our memory that Trump praised Musk in a dialogue, saying, "You're the greatest cutter (firer)."

Trump increased his vote share not only in Ohio but across the entire U.S., and among voters in many different demographic categories. In this sense, "Trump Kingdom" may have neared completion, but whether the lives of the working class will actually improve is a completely different matter.

What will happen in the second Trump administration? Along with the trends in Washington, I would like to continue fixed-point observations of Mike, Joe, and Bob. First, I'll try calling the three of them around the time the inauguration ceremony is over. (Honorifics omitted)