From Showa Genroku to "Heisei Hoei"

If the Showa era was the Genroku era, then the Heisei era corresponds to the Hoei era. This is a comparison using era names from the Edo period. In the past, the economic critic Taichi Sakaiya likened the Showa era to Genroku, calling it the "Era of the Mountain Pass." However, now that Heisei is coming to an end and Mr. Sakaiya has passed away, thinking about it calmly, it seems as though it was a prophecy that the Showa era was the peak of Japanese history, and the era following it would be a downhill slope.

Certainly, that may have been the case for both the economy and the population. As you know, upon entering the Heisei era, this country's bubble economy completely burst, leading to ultra-low growth, and the population began to decline. Furthermore, there were the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake, and an era arrived where first-class rivers, which hadn't been seen overflowing for a while, flooded.

A similar era in the Edo period was the Hoei era, which followed Genroku. It was a time of many natural disasters, particularly earthquakes. In fact, the trigger for changing the Genroku era name itself was an earthquake. In Genroku 16 (1703), a massive earthquake occurred in the Kanto region. This was the Genroku Kanto Earthquake caused by the movement of the Sagami Trough; its recurrence was the Great Kanto Earthquake of the Taisho era, but the magnitude of the earthquake itself was much larger in the Genroku Kanto Earthquake. Even when the Kanto region and Edo were significantly damaged by earthquakes—rather than the area around Kyoto—era names were not easily changed. However, due to the strengthening power of the Shogunate and the scale of the earthquake damage, the era name was changed even for a Kanto earthquake, becoming Hoei.

Once it became the Hoei era, because it was an active period for earthquakes, the Nankai Trough moved next. This was the Hoei Earthquake of Hoei 4 (1707). The range over which the earthquake was felt was nearly 800 kilometers in length, and literally all of Japan shook. Not only did it shake, but on the 49th day after the earthquake, even Mount Fuji erupted. A crater formed on the side of Mount Fuji, creating what is known as Mount Hoei, and the shape of the mountain changed.

Come to think of it, Heisei resembles this Hoei era. First, the population growth of the Edo period came to a halt around the Hoei era. In the 17th century, the development of new rice fields progressed and food production increased, causing the population to nearly double. However, the Hoei Earthquake brought tsunamis to the lowlands, and it seems people of the Edo period began to recognize that the development of new fields through land reclamation had reached its limit. Consequently, the population plateaued around the Hoei era, and for a little over 100 years thereafter, Japan's population hardly increased. While the population grew in the warm southwestern Japan where double-cropping of rice and barley was possible, it actually decreased in the cold northeastern Japan. This is exactly as the historical demographer Akira Hayami clarified.

Heisei Japan is the same, with both the total population and the labor force population beginning to decline. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which was second only to the United States, was overtaken by China, and the GDP per capita is also dropping in rank. I hear predictions that by the mid-21st century, China's GDP will be about seven times that of Japan and India's GDP about four times that of Japan, so the world is likely reverting to the era of "Kara and Tenjiku" (China and India).

And Heisei had many natural disasters. This is where it resembles Hoei the most. One might say Showa was an era of war damage, while Heisei was an era of natural disasters. I remember well the time of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake that occurred early in the morning on January 17, Heisei 7 (1995). At that time, mobile phones were not as widespread as they are now, and information technology was not advanced. Until noon on the day the earthquake struck, centered on Kobe, the situation was not correctly recognized in Tokyo. Most people involved in the National Diet went about their normal activities until noon, and the Prime Minister's Official Residence was so empty in the early morning that it could be described as "unmanned" by today's standards.

For a graduate student, it was the time for submitting reports during the exam period. On that day, rubbing my sleepy eyes after finishing a report overnight, I went to the Mita Campus hill to submit it. When I brought the report to the Mita Campus, I was told, "There was a huge earthquake in Kobe and the elevated highways have overturned." When I said, "That's a problem. I won't be able to return to my hometown in Okayama by Shinkansen next month," a certain professor said, "Isoda-kun, it will be restored by then." I wanted to talk back, saying, "If the highway overpasses have collapsed, the Shinkansen overpasses must surely be down too. Restoration should take more than three months," but I remember keeping quiet because I was a graduate student in a weak position.

Even the great scholars of Keio University made such errors in judgment; Japanese people at that time were carefree and did not think a major disaster would strike. In fact, even when February came, the Shinkansen had not been restored, and I managed to return to Okayama by passing through the earthquake-destroyed streets of Kobe by bus and on foot.

"Showa Genroku, Heisei Hoei"—now, what kind of era will come next? Following Hoei was the Shotoku era, a time when the intellect of the scholar Arai Hakuseki greatly influenced politics. While there are pros and cons to Arai Hakuseki's politics, it is certain that he advanced policies by researching well across time and space and utilizing knowledge widely. Today, as the country goes downhill and disasters continue, I believe there is a role for the intellect of Keio University to fulfill.

I like Yukichi Fukuzawa's principle of jitsugaku (science). If society is in trouble, one thinks academically about the means to solve it. No matter what era we are in, I believe it is important for everyone to steadily carry out this obvious task.